Tensor product approach to modelling epidemics on networks

Tensor product approach to modelling epidemics on networks
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网络流行病建模的张量积方法

DOI:
10.1016/j.amc.2023.128290
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发表时间:
2024
影响因子:
4
通讯作者:
Dolgov S
Dolgov S
中科院分区:
数学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Dolgov S

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为了改进流行病的数学模型,有必要超越传统的同质混合人口的假设,并涉及更精确的信息网络的接触和运输环节的随机过程的流行病传播。一般来说,网络的状态数随其规模呈指数增长,主方程描述受到维数灾难的影响。几乎所有在实践中广泛使用的方法都是随机模拟算法(SSA)的版本,该算法以收敛慢而闻名。在本文中,我们数值求解化学主方程的SIR模型的一般网络使用最近提出的张量积算法。在数值实验中,我们证明了张量积算法比SSA收敛得更快,并且提供了更准确的结果,这对于揭示罕见事件的概率尤其重要,例如感染人数超过(高)阈值。
To improve mathematical models of epidemics it is essential to move beyond the traditional assumption of homogeneous well–mixed population and involve more precise information on the network of contacts and transport links by which a stochastic process of the epidemics spreads. In general, the number of states of the network grows exponentially with its size, and a master equation description suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Almost all methods widely used in practice are versions of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), which is notoriously known for its slow convergence. In this paper we numerically solve the chemical master equation for an SIR model on a general network using recently proposed tensor product algorithms. In numerical experiments we show that tensor product algorithms converge much faster than SSA and deliver more accurate results, which becomes particularly important for uncovering the probabilities of rare events, e.g. for number of infected people to exceed a (high) threshold.
DOI: 10.1016/j.cpc.2013.12.017
发表时间: 2013-06
期刊: Comput. Phys. Commun.
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