The short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China: comparison of time-series and case-crossover analyses.
The short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China: comparison of time-series and case-crossover analyses.
复制标题
空气污染物对中国武汉呼吸道疾病死亡率的短期影响：时间序列比较和病例交叉分析
DOI：
10.1038/srep40482
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发表时间：
2017-01-13
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Xiang H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ren M;Li N;Wang Z;Liu Y;Chen X;Chu Y;Li X;Zhu Z;Tian L;Xiang H
在探索中国武汉市空气污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡率的短期影响时，很少有研究比较不同的方法。本研究采用时间序列和时间分层病例交叉设计评估空气污染物与呼吸系统疾病死亡率之间的关系。应用广义加性模型（GAM）和条件Logistic回归模型分析大气污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡率的短期影响。按年龄、性别和疾病进行分层分析。在单污染物模型的病例交叉和时间序列分析中，SO2浓度每增加10 μg/m3，所有呼吸道疾病死亡的相对危险度分别增加2.4%和1.9%。在病例交叉研究中发现了NO2与男性或65岁以上人群每日呼吸道疾病死亡率之间存在关联的强有力证据。中国武汉市空气污染物与呼吸道疾病死亡率呈正相关。时间序列和病例交叉分析一致地揭示了三种空气污染物与呼吸道疾病死亡率之间的关联。病例交叉分析的空气污染与呼吸系统疾病死亡率之间的关联估计比时间序列分析的差异更大。
Few studies have compared different methods when exploring the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. This study assesses the association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality with both time-series and time-stratified–case-crossover designs. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the conditional logistic regression model were used to assess the short-term effects of air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and diseases. A 10 μg/m3increment in SO2level was associated with an increase in relative risk for all respiratory disease mortality of 2.4% and 1.9% in the case-crossover and time-series analyses in single pollutant models, respectively. Strong evidence of an association between NO2and daily respiratory disease mortality among men or people older than 65 years was found in the case-crossover study. There was a positive association between air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality in Wuhan, China. Both time-series and case-crossover analyses consistently reveal the association between three air pollutants and respiratory disease mortality. The estimates of association between air pollution and respiratory disease mortality from the case–crossover analysis displayed greater variation than that from the time-series analysis.