Secular trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and implications on the projections for future prevalence
Secular trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and implications on the projections for future prevalence
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DOI：
10.1161/circulationaha.105.595140
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发表时间：
2006-07-11
期刊：
影响因子：
37.8
通讯作者：
Tsang, Teresa S. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Miyasaka, Yoko;Barnes, Marion E.;Tsang, Teresa S. M.
背景-关于房颤（AF）发病率趋势的数据有限。我们评估了1980年至2000年以社区为基础的房颤发病率趋势，并提供了到2050年的患病率预测。方法和结果-明尼苏达州奥姆斯特德县的成年居民，他们在1980年至2000年期间（n = 4618）被确定患有ECG证实的首次房颤。确定年龄调整的发病率趋势，并用于构建基于模型的患病率估计值。1980年和2000年，经年龄和性别校正的AF发病率分别为3.04（95% CI，2.78 - 3.31）和3.68（95% CI，3.42 - 3.95）/1000人-年。根据Poisson回归，校正了年龄和性别，AF的发病率显著增加（P = 0.014），21年内相对增加12.6%（95%CI，2.1至23.1）。年龄校正的AF发病率的增加在男性和女性之间没有差异（P = 0.84）。根据美国人口普查局对美国人口的预测，到2050年，AF患者的数量预计为1210万，假设AF的年龄调整发病率没有进一步增加，但如果发病率继续增加，则为1590万。结论-1980年至2000年期间，奥姆斯特德县AF的年龄调整发病率显著增加。无论这种增长率是否继续，到2050年，美国AF患者的预计人数将超过1000万，这突出表明迫切需要针对AF发展的一级预防策略。
Background - Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050.Methods and Results - The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n = 4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P = 0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age- adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P = 0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age- adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues.Conclusions - The age- adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.