Multi‐Proxy, Multi‐Season Streamflow Reconstruction With Mass Balance Adjustment
Multi‐Proxy, Multi‐Season Streamflow Reconstruction With Mass Balance Adjustment
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DOI：
10.1029/2020wr029394
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Hung T. T. Nguyen-Hung-T.-T.-Nguyen-2000365356;S. Galelli;Chenxi Xu;B. Buckley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hung T. T. Nguyen-Hung-T.-T.-Nguyen-2000365356;S. Galelli;Chenxi Xu;B. Buckley
尽管提供了重要的水文气候的见解，径流重建仍然看到有限的水资源业务的使用，因为每年的重建不适合在更精细的时间尺度的决策。很少尝试进行次年度重建，依赖于统计分解，不使用或很少使用代理信息。在这里，我们开发了一个新的框架，优化代理组合，同时产生季节性和年度重建。重要的是，该框架确保季节性总流量与年度流量密切匹配。这一质量平衡标准是必要的，以避免误导水资源管理决策，如水权分配或大坝放水决策。利用该框架，并利用东南亚的环宽和纤维素δ18 O的多物种网络，我们重建了泰国最大水库的季节性和年度流入量。重建在统计上是熟练的。此外，它们很好地保持了质量平衡：差异大多在年平均流量的10%以内。因此，重建提供了更可靠的估计季节性和年度地表水的可用性。这项工作是一个更接近业务可用性的径流重建水资源管理。
Despite having offered important hydroclimatic insights, streamflow reconstructions still see limited use in water resources operations, because annual reconstructions are not suitable for decisions at finer time scales. The few attempts toward sub‐annual reconstructions have relied on statistical disaggregation, which uses none or little proxy information. Here, we develop a novel framework that optimizes proxy combinations to simultaneously produce seasonal and annual reconstructions. Importantly, the framework ensures that total seasonal flow matches annual flow closely. This mass balance criterion is necessary to avoid misguiding water management decisions, such as the allocation of water rights or dam release decisions. Using the framework, and leveraging a multi‐species network of ring width and cellulose δ18 O in Southeast Asia, we reconstruct seasonal and annual inflow to Thailand's largest reservoir. The reconstructions are statistically skillful. Furthermore, they preserve the mass balance well: the differences are mostly within 10% of the mean annual flow. As a result, the reconstructions provide more reliable estimates of the seasonal and annual surface water availability. This work is one step closer toward operational usability of streamflow reconstruction in water resources management.