A recursive point process model for infectious diseases
A recursive point process model for infectious diseases
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DOI：
10.1007/s10463-018-0690-9
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Harrigan, Ryan J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schoenberg, Frederic Paik;Hoffmann, Marc;Harrigan, Ryan J.
我们引入一种新型的点过程模型来描述传染病的发病率。该模型的前提是，当疾病在人群中发生频率较低时，例如在爆发的初级阶段，那么任何患有该疾病的人都可能向其他人传播较高的比率，而当疾病流行时，由于预防措施和人群中先前暴露的比例相对较高，传播率较低。该模型被认为是递归的，因为任何时间的条件强度都取决于与先前点相关的生产率，而该生产率又取决于这些点的条件强度。推导了该模型的基本属性，讨论了估计和模拟，并且证明递归模型非常适合加州落基山斑疹热数据。
We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model incorporates the premise that when a disease occurs at low frequency in the population, such as in the primary stages of an outbreak, then anyone with the disease is likely to have a high rate of transmission to others, whereas when the disease is prevalent, the transmission rate is lower due to prevention measures and a relatively high percentage of previous exposure in the population. The model is said to be recursive, in the sense that the conditional intensity at any time depends on the productivity associated with previous points, and this productivity in turn depends on the conditional intensity at those points. Basic properties of the model are derived, estimation and simulation are discussed, and the recursive model is shown to fit well to California Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever data.