Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo1282
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发表时间：
2011-11-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Haigh, Joanna D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ineson, Sarah;Scaife, Adam A.;Haigh, Joanna D.
根据太阳变率和气象变量之间的相关性，已多次提出太阳辐射变化对地球表面气候的影响[1]。具体地说，在太阳活动较少的冬季观察到较弱的西风，例如在11年太阳黑子周期的最小阶段(2-4)。事实证明，除了一些可能的例外(5，6)，气候模型很难始终如一地再现这一信号(7，8)。光谱辐射监测卫星测量表明，太阳紫外线辐射的变化可能比之前认为的更大(9)。在这里，我们驱动了一个基于这些观测的具有紫外线辐照度变化的海洋-大气气候模型。我们发现，该模型对太阳极小值做出了响应，其表面气压和温度模式类似于北大西洋或北极涛动的负相，与观测结果的量级相似。在我们的模型中，异常是通过温带冬季大气的深处下降的。如果对太阳紫外线辐照度的最新测量是正确的，那么近年来观察到的低太阳活动导致北欧和美国的冬季寒冷，南欧和加拿大的冬季温和，全球平均气温几乎没有直接变化。考虑到11年太阳周期的准规律性，我们的发现可能有助于改进对人口稠密的温带地区的十年气候预测。
An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth's surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables(1). Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle(2-4). With some possible exceptions(5,6), it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal(7,8). Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought(9). Here we drive an ocean-atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions.