Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States
Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086480
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发表时间：
2020-03-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ryberg, Karen R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Blum, Annalise G.;Ferraro, Paul J.;Ryberg, Karen R.
尽管人们一致认为不透水的表面会增加洪水，但增加的幅度仍然不确定。这种不确定性在很大程度上源于将不透水覆盖层变化的影响与其他影响洪水的因素分开的挑战。为了控制这些因素，以前的研究设计依赖于时间或空间变化的不透水覆盖。我们利用面板数据回归设计中的时间和空间变化来隔离不透水覆盖对洪水的影响。根据来自280个美国河流水位计的39年数据，我们估计不透水流域覆盖率增加一个百分点会导致年洪水量级平均增加3.3%（95%CI：1.9%，4.7%）。使用2,109个流量计，其中一些具有上游调节和/或重叠流域，我们估计更大的影响：4.6%（CI：3.5%，5.6%）。这里介绍的方法可以扩展到估计水文变化的其他驱动因素的因果影响。
Despite consensus that impervious surfaces increase flooding, the magnitude of the increase remains uncertain. This uncertainty largely stems from the challenge of isolating the effect of changes in impervious cover separate from other factors that also affect flooding. To control for these factors, prior study designs rely on either temporal or spatial variation in impervious cover. We leverage both temporal and spatial variation in a panel data regression design to isolate the effect of impervious cover on floods. With 39 years of data from 280 U.S. streamgages, we estimate that a one percentage point increase in impervious basin cover causes a 3.3% increase in annual flood magnitude (95%CI: 1.9%, 4.7%) on average. Using 2,109 streamgages, some of which have upstream regulation and/or overlapping basins, we estimate a larger effect: 4.6% (CI: 3.5%, 5.6%). The approach introduced here can be extended to estimate the causal effects of other drivers of hydrologic change.