Preparing for the future: Development of an 'antifragile' methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation
Preparing for the future: Development of an 'antifragile' methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Wright, George
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Derbyshire, James;Wright, George
本文论证了情景规划的直觉逻辑学方法强调未来事件的因果展开，这种强调限制了它帮助为未来做准备的能力，例如，通过给人一种误导性的印象，认为“微弱信号”或“早期警告”是有用的。我们主张另一种方法的好处，这种方法将不确定性视为源于非决定论。我们开发和说明了一种为未来做准备的“反脆弱”方法，并将其作为一种循序渐进的、非确定性的方法，可以用来取代或补充以因果为重点的情景规划方法。(C)2013 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of 'weak signals' or 'early warnings'. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an 'antifragile' approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of scenario planning. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.