How will heat pumps alter national half-hourly heat demands? Empirical modelling based on GB field trials
How will heat pumps alter national half-hourly heat demands? Empirical modelling based on GB field trials
复制标题
热泵将如何改变全国半小时的热量需求？
DOI：
10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.110777
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
R. Buswell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Watson;K. Lomas;R. Buswell
使用燃气锅炉供暖与英国到2050年实现温室气体净零排放的目标不相容。一种解决方案是转向由脱碳发电厂供应的热泵（HP），但这可能会给电力供应网络带来无法管理的负担。国家的热需求概况取决于家庭采用的供暖模式，而这又取决于供暖系统的类型及其控制。现有的最大的数据集，从大约6600个燃气加热的家庭和600个家庭与HP，被用来创建英国（GB）的半小时国内热需求的经验模型。该模型用于估计GB住房存量的当前和未来天气条件下的年半小时热需求。将使用HP时的需求曲线与当前燃气供暖曲线进行比较。在寒冷的一年中，计算出的典型混合地源和空气源HP的年总热需求为422 TWh，比燃气供暖家庭高8%。然而，157 GW的峰值热需求比燃气供暖低8%，最大热斜坡率为21 GW/h，低67%。这些结果是由于家庭使用燃气锅炉和HP的不同方式造成的。准确建模的供暖模式是必要的，以实现可靠的预测全国热需求。影响HP日常使用模式的政策举措、财务激励或其他干预措施也可能对GB热需求曲线产生显著的积极影响。
Heating homes using gas boilers is incompatible with the UK’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. One solution is to shift to heat pumps (HPs) supplied from decarbonised power plant, but this could place an unmanageable burden on the electricity supply network.National heat demand profiles depend on the heating patterns adopted by households which, in turn, depend on the type of heating system and its control. The largest data sets available, from around 6600 gas-heated homes and 600 homes with HPs, are used to create an empirical model of Great Britain’s (GB) half-hourly domestic heat demand. The model is used to estimate the annual half-hourly heat demand of the GB housing stock for both current and future weather conditions.The demand profile when using HPs is compared to the current profile for gas heating. In a cold year, the calculated total annual heat demand of a typical mix of ground source and air-source HPs was 422TWh, 8% greater for than for gas-heated homes. However, the peak heat demand of 157GW was 8% lower than for gas heating, and the maximum heat ramp rate of 21GW/h, 67% lower. These results are due to the different ways that households use gas boilers and HPs. The accurate modelling of heating patterns is necessary to achieve reliable predictions of national heat demand. Policy initiatives, financial incentives or other interventions that influence the daily pattern of HP usage could also have a marked and positive influence on the GB heat demand profile.
供热和交通电气化对能源系统的影响
DOI：
10.1680/ener.14.00008
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy
影响因子：
--
作者：
Baruah P
通讯作者：
Baruah P