Global scale climate - crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming
Global scale climate - crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Field, Christopher B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lobell, David B.;Field, Christopher B.
全球主要农作物产量的变化是粮食价格、粮食安全和土地使用决定的重要驱动因素。这些商品的全球平均产量由分布在各种管理、土壤和气候制度的数百万块田地上的作物表现决定。尽管全球粮食供应复杂，但我们在这里表明，对生长季节温度和降雨量的简单衡量--基于每种作物所在位置的空间平均--可以解释世界上种植最广泛的六种作物的全球平均产量年际变化的30%或更多。对于小麦、玉米和大麦，全球产量对气温上升的反应显然是负面的。根据这些敏感性和观察到的气候趋势，我们估计，自1981年以来，气候变暖导致这三种作物每年总共损失约4000万吨或50亿美元，截至2002年。虽然这些影响与同期技术产量的增长相比很小，但结果表明气候趋势已经对全球范围内的作物产量产生了负面影响。
Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation - spatial averages based on the locations of each crop - explain similar to 30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale.