On the Analysis of Illicit Supply Networks Using Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains
On the Analysis of Illicit Supply Networks Using Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains
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DOI：
10.1007/978-3-030-50146-4_38
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发表时间：
2020-05-18
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Simske S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
González Ordiano JÁ;Finn L;Winterlich A;Moloney G;Simske S
非法物品的贸易，如假冒伪劣商品，不仅导致大量私人和公共收入的损失，而且对个人构成危险，破坏政府，在最极端的情况下，还为犯罪组织提供资金。据估计，2013年，非法物品贸易占全球贸易总额的60%。为了打击非法贸易，有必要了解其非法供应网络。因此，我们在这篇文章中提出了一种方法，能够找到一个最佳的描述非法供应网络使用一系列的可变状态分辨率马尔可夫链。新方法应用于一个真实世界的数据集来自全球产品认证服务的微焦点国际。结果表明，如何非法供应网络可能与这种方法的帮助下进行分析。
The trade in illicit items, such as counterfeits, not only leads to the loss of large sums of private and public revenue, but also poses a danger to individuals, undermines governments, and—in the most extreme cases—finances criminal organizations. It is estimated that in 2013 trade in illicit items accounted for of the global commerce. To combat illicit trade, it is necessary to understand its illicit supply networks. Therefore, we present in this article an approach that is able to find an optimal description of an illicit supply network using a series of Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains. The new method is applied to a real-world dataset stemming from the Global Product Authentication Service of Micro Focus International. The results show how an illicit supply network might be analyzed with the help of this method.