Electoral Balancing, Divided Government and 'Midterm' Loss in German Elections
Electoral Balancing, Divided Government and 'Midterm' Loss in German Elections
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DOI：
10.1080/13572330600738845
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Hainmueller, Jens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kern, Holger Lutz;Hainmueller, Jens
本文重新审视了德国中期选举的失败，认为政府类型是中期选举失败的关键决定因素。使用面板回归的一个新编制的数据集，涵盖所有的州选举期间，1949年至2004年，我们发现，系统的中期损失发生时，只有两个议院的联邦立法机构（联邦议院和联邦参议院）由一个政党或政党联盟控制。此前的研究未能发现这一重要规律。这些发现有力地支持了选举平衡模型，同时对中期选举失利的传统解释提出了质疑。
This paper takes a fresh look at the midterm loss in German elections and argues that government type is a crucial determinant of midterm loss. Using panel regressions on a newly compiled data set covering all state elections during the period 1949-2004, we find that systematic midterm losses occur only when both chambers of the federal legislature (Bundestag and Bundesrat) are controlled by one party or a party coalition. Prior research has failed to discover this important regularity. These findings lend strong support to electoral balancing models while calling into doubt more traditional explanations of midterm loss.