Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic Peninsula
Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic Peninsula
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-022-00422-9
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
J. Wille;V. Favier;N. Jourdain;C. Kittel;J. Turton;Cécile Agosta;I. Gorodetskaya;G. Picard;Francis Codron;Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos;C. Amory;X. Fettweis;J. Blanchet;V. Jomelli;A. Berchet
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作者：
J. Wille;V. Favier;N. Jourdain;C. Kittel;J. Turton;Cécile Agosta;I. Gorodetskaya;G. Picard;Francis Codron;Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos;C. Amory;X. Fettweis;J. Blanchet;V. Jomelli;A. Berchet
南极半岛冰架沿着的解体引发了许多关于导致其最终戏剧性崩溃的各种过程的讨论，但没有就可能连接这些过程的大气强迫达成共识。在这里，使用大气河流检测算法沿着与区域气候模型和卫星观测，我们表明，最激烈的大气河流引起极端的温度，表面融化，海冰解体，或大涌浪不稳定的冰架与40%的概率。这是在1995年和2002年夏季拉森A和B冰架崩溃期间观察到的。总体而言，2000-2020年60%的产犊事件是由大气河流引发的。这些冰架支撑作用的丧失导致大陆冰进一步流失，随后海平面上升。根据未来的变暖预测，拉森C冰架将受到同样过程的威胁。
The disintegration of the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have spurred much discussion on the various processes leading to their eventual dramatic collapse, but without a consensus on an atmospheric forcing that could connect these processes. Here, using an atmospheric river detection algorithm along with a regional climate model and satellite observations, we show that the most intense atmospheric rivers induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability. This was observed during the collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves during the summers of 1995 and 2002 respectively. Overall, 60% of calving events from 2000–2020 were triggered by atmospheric rivers. The loss of the buttressing effect from these ice shelves leads to further continental ice loss and subsequent sea-level rise. Under future warming projections, the Larsen C ice shelf will be at-risk from the same processes.