An empirical mechanistic framework for heat-related illness
An empirical mechanistic framework for heat-related illness
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DOI：
10.3354/cr016133
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发表时间：
2001-01-18
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Wilson, TF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chan, NY;Stacey, MT;Wilson, TF
开发了一个基于生理学的机制框架，以了解与热浪对健康造成的不利影响相关的关键风险因素。该框架由许多集成的跨学科模块组成。环境条件和行为反应与预测核心温度的生理模型相关。然后，随着时间的推移，核心温度会转换为时间温度指标。该框架的输出是与热相关的健康影响指数（HEI），反映了热应激对健康的潜在相对严重程度。该框架非常灵活，允许各个模型适应特定地点的条件，并随着新信息的出现而进行更新。情景分析很容易实现，使该框架能够评估干预策略以及全球气候变化对热相关疾病的可能影响等问题。该框架和一组初始组件模型适用于 1995 年芝加哥赛事期间的条件，并将结果与已发表的研究进行了比较。对于个人而言，在比较室内与室外环境时，HEI 比率与实际死亡风险比率之间存在相当好的一致性。当对不同人群进行汇总时，在比较健康人群与受损人群时，预测的 HEI 比率明显小于实际死亡率，这支持了死亡率可能不是热应激影响的最佳指标的观点。未来的工作应包括完善初始模型并将其应用于其他城市和高温事件。
A physiologically based, mechanistic framework was developed to understand key risk factors associated with adverse health effects from heat waves. The framework consists of a number of integrated transdisciplinary modules. Environmental conditions and behavioral responses link to a physiological model, which predicts core temperature. Core temperature over time is then converted into a time-at-temperature metric. The output of the framework is a heat-related health effects index (HEI), reflecting the potential relative severity of the heat stress on health. The framework is flexible, allowing the individual models to be adapted to conditions at specific locations and to be updated as new information becomes available. Scenario analyses are easily accommodated, enabling the framework to evaluate issues such as intervention strategies and the possible effects of global climate change on heat-related illnesses. The framework and an initial set of component models were applied to conditions during the 1995 Chicago event and the results compared with published studies. For individuals, there was reasonably good agreement between HEI ratios and actual mortality risk ratios when comparing indoor versus outdoor environments. When aggregating across populations, predicted HEI ratios were significantly smaller than actual mortality ratios when comparing healthy versus compromised populations, supporting the notion that mortality may not be the best indicator of heat stress effects. Future work should include refinement of the initial models and application to other cities and heat events.