Estimating deaths and injuries due to road traffic accidents in Karachi, Pakistan, through the capture-recapture method
Estimating deaths and injuries due to road traffic accidents in Karachi, Pakistan, through the capture-recapture method
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/27.5.866
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发表时间：
1998-10-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Luby, SP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Razzak, JA;Luby, SP
道路交通事故（RTA）是巴基斯坦等发展中国家死亡和残疾的重要但可预防的原因。然而，准确的流行病学数据，在发展中国家受伤injuries.Methods的伤害，我们采用捕获-再捕获法估计死亡率和受伤率，由于RTA在卡拉奇。我们采用双样本捕获-再捕获方法，使用交通警察记录作为捕获的一个来源，使用非政府救护车服务的日志作为第二个捕获来源，时间为1994年的10个月零20天。我们通过考虑两个来源中的条目匹配，如果它们报告了相同的日期，时间和地点，以及至少一个其他匹配变量，即姓名，车辆登记号，车辆类型或患者结局，来生成保守的调整后的受伤和死亡估计值。然后，我们比较了估计率与警方rates.Results在1994年警方报告544人死亡，793人受伤，由于RTA，而救护车记录指出343人死亡，2048人受伤。捕获-再捕获分析估计在研究期间至少有972例（95%CI：912-1031）死亡和18936例（95%CI：15507 - 22342）损伤可归因于RTA。官方数据仅统计了56%的死亡和4%的重伤。1994年的估计率为185受伤和11.2死亡每100 000 population.Conclusion道路交通伤害和死亡在卡拉奇是一个更实质性的健康问题比从官方统计数据是显而易见的。
Background Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important yet preventable cause of death and disability in developing countries like Pakistan. Yet accurate epidemiological data on injuries in developing country injuries is often difficult to obtain.Methods We applied the capture-recapture method to estimate the death and injury rates due to RTA in karachi. We applied the two-sample capture-recapture method using traffic police records as one source of capture and the logs of a non-government ambulance service as the second capture source for the same 10 months and 20 days for which 1994 data were available. We generated a conservative adjusted estimate of injuries and deaths by considering entries in the two sources as matched if they reported the same date, time, and place, and at least one of the other matching variables, of name, vehicle registration number, vehicle types or patient outcome. We then compared the estimated rates with the police rates.Results In 1994 police reported 544 deaths and 793 injuries due to RTA while ambulance records noted 343 deaths and 2048 injuries. The capture-recapture analysis estimated at least 972 (95% CI : 912-1031) deaths and 18 936 (95% CI : 15 507-22 342) injuries attributable to RTA during the study period. Official sources counted only 56% of deaths and 4% of serious injuries. The estimated rates for the year 1994 were 185 injuries and 11.2 deaths per 100 000 population.Conclusion Road traffic injuries and deaths in Karachi are a much more substantial health problem than is evident from official statistics.