Risk scoring tool for forearm skin tears in Japanese older adults: A prospective cohort study
Risk scoring tool for forearm skin tears in Japanese older adults: A prospective cohort study
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jtv.2021.02.010
复制
发表时间：
2021-04-27
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Sanada, Hiromi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Minematsu, Takeo;Dai, Misako;Sanada, Hiromi
[Aim]由于疼痛的皮肤撕裂经常发生在老年患者中，因此预防皮肤撕裂是改善其生活质量的根本。然而，日本尚未建立皮肤撕裂的风险评估工具。因此，我们的目的是提出一个风险评分工具的皮肤撕裂在日本老年人。[方法]我们在日本两家长期护理医院进行了一项前瞻性队列研究，随访6个月。共招募了257名住院患者。在基线时收集患者和皮肤特征，并在随访期间检查前臂皮肤撕裂的发生率。为了开发一个风险评分工具，我们确定了风险因素，并将其在多元逻辑回归分析中估计的系数转换为简化的分数。评估总分的预测准确性。[结果] 244例受试者中，29例在随访期间发生前臂皮肤撕裂，累计发生率为13.5%。老年性紫癜、假性瘢痕、挛缩和皮肤干燥被确定为皮肤撕裂的危险因素。他们的加权评分分别为6、4、5和6。总分的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.806。在临界值为12时，敏感性为0.86，特异性为0.67。[结论]我们的前臂皮肤撕裂风险评分工具准确性高，但特异性低。该工具有助于防止日本老年人前臂皮肤撕裂。
[Aim] Because painful skin tears frequently occur in older patients, the prevention of skin tears is fundamental to improve their quality of life. However, a risk assessment tool for skin tears has not been established yet in Japan. Therefore, we aimed to propose a risk scoring tool for skin tears in Japanese older adult. [Methods] We conducted a prospective cohort study with 6-month follow-up in two long-term care hospitals in Japan. A total of 257 inpatients were recruited. Patient and skin characteristics were collected at baseline, and the occurrence of forearm skin tears were examined during follow-up. To develop a risk scoring tool, we identified risk factors, and converted their coefficients estimated in the multiple logistic regression analysis into simplified scores. The predictive accuracy of the total score was evaluated. [Results] Of 244 participants, 29 developed forearm skin tears during the follow-up period, a cumulative incidence of 13.5%. Senile purpura, pseudoscar, contracture, and dry skin were identified as risk factors for skin tears. Their weighted scores were 6, 4, 5, and 6, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the total score was 0.806. At a cut-off score of 12, the sensitivity was 0.86, and the specificity was 0.67. [Conclusion] Our forearm skin tear risk scoring tool showed high accuracy, whereas specificity was low. This tool can contribute to prevent forearm skin tears in Japanese older adults.