When a gain becomes a loss: The effect of wealth predictions on financial decisions
When a gain becomes a loss: The effect of wealth predictions on financial decisions
复制标题
当收益变成损失：财富预测对财务决策的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104822
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Sussman, Abigail B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Trueblood, Jennifer S.;Sussman, Abigail B.
人们在做出财务决策时，不仅需要考虑当前的财务状况，还需要考虑未来财富的变化。这项工作调查了人们对未来财富的信念以及这些信念如何影响财务决策。使用联合实验和计算认知建模方法，我们表明人们的未来信念可以作为投资决策时的参考点。这些结果得到了大规模横断面调查 (n= 4606) 数据的进一步支持，该调查显示，人们对其资产未来价值的信念与风险（即股票市场指数）和安全（即每年赚取固定金额的债券）期权之间的投资决策有关。在实验和调查中，我们假设，由于基于信念的参考点，名义上被称为确定收益的结果可能会被编码为损失。对于对未来财富持乐观信念的个人来说，这种模式会导致在积极结果方面的风险选择增加。
When people make financial decisions, they need not only think about their current financial situation, but also about changes in future wealth. This work investigates people's beliefs about their future wealth and how these beliefs impact financial decisions. Using a joint experimental and computational cognitive modeling approach, we show that people's future beliefs serve as reference points when making investment decisions. These results are further supported by data from a large-scale cross-sectional survey (n= 4606) showing that people's beliefs about the future value of their assets are related to investment decisions between risky (i.e., stock market index) and safe (i.e., bond earning a fixed amount per year) options. In both the experiments and survey, we hypothesize that outcomes that are nominally stated as sure gains can become coded as losses due to belief-based reference points. This pattern leads to an increase in riskier choices across positive outcomes for individuals with optimistic beliefs about their future wealth.