A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2153
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Chhetri, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Challinor, A. J.;Watson, J.;Chhetri, N.
在不断变化的气候中养活不断增长的全球人口对社会提出了重大挑战（1，2）。评估粮食安全前景需要一系列农业和气候假设情况下的作物预计产量。以前的荟萃分析（3）总结了气候变化的影响和适应潜力作为温度的函数，但没有检查不确定性，影响的时间，或适应的量化有效性。在这里，我们开发了一个新的数据集，包含1,700多个已发布的模拟，以评估气候变化和适应对产量的影响。如果不采取适应措施，预计温带和热带地区的小麦、水稻和玉米的总产量将因当地气温升高2摄氏度而损失。作物层面的适应性调整使模拟产量平均增加7- 15%，其中小麦和水稻的适应性调整比玉米更有效。世纪后半叶的产量损失比前半叶更大。关于世纪后半叶产量下降的共识在热带地区比温带地区更强烈，但即使是温和的变暖也可能减少许多地区的温带作物产量。虽然对年际变异性的了解比平均产量少，但现有数据表明，产量变异性可能会增加。
Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society(1,2). The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses(3) have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 degrees C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.