CHILDHOOD-ONSET DIABETES - TIME TRENDS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS
CHILDHOOD-ONSET DIABETES - TIME TRENDS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/23.6.1234
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发表时间：
1994-12-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
MUSTONEN, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DAHLQUIST, G;MUSTONEN, L
背景。儿童糖尿病已被证明随着时间的推移而增加，在瑞典有南北梯度，并表现出季节性变化。在本研究中，我们分析了儿童糖尿病发病率随时间以及平均气温和日照时数等气候因素的变化。方法。瑞典儿童糖尿病登记册前瞻性地记录了自1977年7月1日以来所有0-14岁发病的糖尿病病例。截至1993年1月1日，已登记了5831例。使用泊松回归模型和 Cox 比例风险模型对数据集进行分析。结果。年平均发病率为 25/100 000。在 15 年间，随着时间的推移，总体发病率有所增加。分别分析前 7 年和后 8 年时，第一个时期的基础线性增长平均为每年 6%，但第二个时期没有显着增长。第一阶段的增加主要是由于10岁之前发病率的增加。每个县每月测量的发病率与平均日照时数和平均气温之间分别存在显着的负相关和独立关系。我们没有发现气候因素和发病年龄之间存在任何关联。结论。过去15年瑞典儿童糖尿病呈上升趋势，主要是由于观察期前半段发病的10岁以下儿童发病率增加。在过去 8 年期间，发病率趋于平稳。较低的平均气温和较少的日照时数与儿童糖尿病的发病率呈独立的负相关，这可能部分解释了该病发病率的南北梯度和季节变化。
Background. Childhood diabetes has been shown to have increased over time, to have a north-south gradient within Sweden and to exhibit seasonal variation. In the present study we have analysed the variation in incidence of childhood diabetes with time, and climatological factors such as mean temperature and sunshine hours.Methods. The Swedish childhood diabetes register prospectively records all incident cases of diabetes with onset at 0-14 years since 1 July 1977. By 1 January 1993, 5831 cases had been registered. The data set was analysed using Poisson regression modelling and Cox' proportional hazards model.Results. The mean annual incidence rate was 25/100 000. Over the 15 years there was an overall increase with time. When analysing the first 7 years and the last 8 years separately the basal linear increase was a mean 6% per year during the first period but no significant increase was noted during the second period. The increase during the first period was mainly due to an increase in incidence before the age of 10. Significant inverse and independent relationships were found between incidence rate and mean sunshine hours and mean temperature, respectively, when measured monthly in each county. We did not find any association between the climatological factors and age at onset.Conclusions. The increasing trend in childhood diabetes in Sweden during the past 15 years was mainly due to an increase in incidence in children younger than 10 years of age with onset during the first half of the observation period. During the last 8-year period incidence levelled off. A low mean temperature and a low number of sunshine hours are inversely and independently correlated to the incidence of childhood diabetes which may partly explain the north-south gradient and seasonal variation in the incidence of the disease.