POPULATION-DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION AND SURVIVAL IN AFRICAN WILD DOGS (LYCAON-PICTUS)
POPULATION-DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION AND SURVIVAL IN AFRICAN WILD DOGS (LYCAON-PICTUS)
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1995.0201
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发表时间：
1995-11-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
EAST, ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BURROWS, R;HOFER, H;EAST, ML
Burrows 等人记录了塞伦盖蒂野狗研究包的人口统计及其 1991 年的灭绝情况。 （1994）。与人口统计学证据相一致的一种对包裹丢失的解释是，干预措施（疫苗接种、固定和无线电项圈）引起的压力诱发了病毒性疾病。一些研究声称拒绝这一假设。然而，在固定的狼人中测量的皮质醇水平（其病原体暴露情况未知）并不能证明塞伦盖蒂的干预措施是良性的。对其他生态系统中利卡翁的存活率的分析最大限度地减少了展示干预效果的机会，并且未能将疫苗接种视为干预措施。现在有证据表明干预措施显着降低了马赛马拉狼的存活率。对塞伦盖蒂利卡翁种群灭绝可能性的进一步模拟、塞伦盖蒂利卡翁种群变异性有限的证据以及塞伦盖蒂利卡翁的小比例因子强化了 Burrows 等人的结论，即灭绝不太可能仅归因于偶然。尽管一些研究声称，如果不采取干预措施，利卡翁的保护注定会失败，但迄今为止，疫苗接种、血液采样和无线电遥测对利卡翁的保护作用甚微。所有研究都未能反驳巴罗斯假说或提供令人信服的替代方案。
The demography of Serengeti wild dog study packs and their extinction in 1991 was documented by Burrows et al. (1994). One explanation for pack loss compatible with demographic evidence was viral disease induced by stress caused by intervention (vaccination, immobilization and radio-collaring). Several studies claim to reject this hypothesis. However, cortisol levels measured in immobilized Lycaon, whose pathogen exposure is unknown, do not demonstrate that interventions in the Serengeti were benign. The analysis of survivorship in Lycaon in other ecosystems minimized the chance of demonstrating any effect of intervention and failed to consider vaccinations as intervention. There is now evidence that intervention significantly decreased survivorship of Masai Mara Lycaon. Further simulations of the likelihood of population extinction in Serengeti Lycaon, evidence of limited population variability and a small scaling factor in Serengeti Lycaon strengthen Burrows ef al.'s conclusion that the extinction was unlikely to be due to chance alone. Although some studies claim that Lycaon conservation is doomed without intervention, to date vaccinations, blood sampling and radio-telemetry have contributed little to Lycaon conservation. All studies fail to disprove the Burrows hypothesis or provide convincing alternatives.