A Self-Organizing-Map-Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica
A Self-Organizing-Map-Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-16-0084.1
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
M. A. Nigro;J. Cassano;J. Wille;D. Bromwich;M. Lazzara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. A. Nigro;J. Cassano;J. Wille;D. Bromwich;M. Lazzara
在数值天气预报模式中，近地层稳定性的精确表示是重要的，因为它对地表能量、湿度和动量通量的预报有影响。它还影响边界层过程，如湍流的产生，近地表流动的产生和雾的形成。本文利用南极罗斯冰架30米自动气象站的观测资料，对南极中尺度预报系统（AMPS）的近地层进行了评估，AMPS是一个用于南极预报的数值天气预报系统。自组织映射（SOM）的方法被用来识别在30米高的塔观察到的特征位温异常廓线。结果表明，AMPS对近中性廓线的频率预测偏低，而对弱不稳定和弱不稳定廓线的频率预测偏高。
AbstractAccurate representation of the stability of the surface layer in numerical weather prediction models is important because of the impact it has on forecasts of surface energy, moisture, and momentum fluxes. It also impacts boundary layer processes such as the generation of turbulence, the creation of near-surface flows, and fog formation. This paper uses observations from a 30-m automatic weather station on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to evaluate the near-surface layer in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), a numerical weather prediction system used for forecasting in Antarctica. The method of self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify characteristic potential temperature anomaly profiles observed at the 30-m tower. The SOM-identified profiles are then used to evaluate the performance of AMPS as a function of atmospheric stability.The results indicate AMPS underpredicts the frequency of near-neutral profiles and instead overpredicts the frequency of weakly unstable and weak to...