Resolving the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Interaction Conundrum
Resolving the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Interaction Conundrum
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DOI：
10.1029/2023gl103777
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发表时间：
2023-07-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wittenberg, Andrew T. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiang, Feng;Zhang, Wenjun;Wittenberg, Andrew T. T.
了解热带太平洋和大西洋之间的相互作用几十年来一直是气候界面临的挑战。通常，北半球夏季大西洋的厄尔尼诺事件之后，两个季节左右，太平洋的相反迹象的事件。然而，将赤道大西洋信息的变化内部的太平洋贷款没有显着的额外的预测技能，随后的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。在这里，我们解决这个难题在一个物理一致的框架，在这个框架中，一个太平洋事件的新生的发病迅速引起了相反签署的夏季赤道大西洋事件和领先的相关性大西洋太平洋是一个统计工件ENSO的自相关。由于大西洋大气-海洋耦合的季节性放大，这种太平洋对大西洋的影响仅限于晚春前后的一个短窗口。这一新框架调和了观测到的和多模式模拟的流域间关系之间的差异，在理解季节性调制的流域间气候联系及其可预测性方面取得了重大进展。
Understanding the interaction between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has challenged the climate community for decades. Typically, boreal summer Atlantic Nino events are followed by vigorous Pacific events of opposite sign around two seasons later. However, incorporating the equatorial Atlantic information to variabilities internal to the Pacific lends no significant additional predictive skill for the subsequent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we resolve this conundrum in a physically consistent frame, in which the nascent onset of a Pacific event rapidly induces an opposite-signed summer equatorial Atlantic event and the lead correlation of Atlantic over Pacific is a statistical artifact of ENSO's autocorrelation. This Pacific-to-Atlantic impact is limited to a short window around late spring due to seasonally-amplified Atlantic atmosphere-ocean coupling. This new frame reconciles the discrepancies between the observed and multi-model simulated inter-basin relationship, providing a major advance in understanding seasonally-modulated inter-basin climate connections as well as their predictability.