Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 Climate Shifts in the Pacific
Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 Climate Shifts in the Pacific
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00626.1
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
H. Ding;R. Greatbatch;M. Latif;W. Park;R. Gerdes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Ding;R. Greatbatch;M. Latif;W. Park;R. Gerdes
本文以1976/77年和1998/99年太平洋气候转变事件为例，描述和说明了利用海洋/大气/海冰耦合模式对近期气候变率进行后验（即历史预报）的方法。初始化是通过在部分耦合模式下运行耦合模式来实现的，即利用全球观测到的风应力异常来驱动耦合模式的海洋/海冰分量，同时保持海洋/海冰与大气分量之间的热力学耦合。本文表明，后播实验可以成功地捕获与1976/77年和1998/99年气候变化相关的许多特征。例如，1976年初开始的后降水实验可以捕捉到1976/77年气候变化后9年间赤道太平洋中东部海温（SST）变暖和太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）正相，包括阿留申低压系统的深化。1998年初开始的后投试验也能捕捉到1998/99年以后4年的部分异常情况。我们认为，热带初始条件中存在的热含量异常的动力调整对于两次气候变化的成功后验是重要的。
The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts.