Order, Conflict, and Violence: Civil wars and guerrilla warfare in the contemporary world: toward a joint theory of motivations and opportunities
Order, Conflict, and Violence: Civil wars and guerrilla warfare in the contemporary world: toward a joint theory of motivations and opportunities
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秩序、冲突和暴力：当代世界的内战和游击战：走向动机和机会的联合理论
DOI：
10.1017/cbo9780511755903.009
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Boix
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Boix
使用系统和有组织的暴力来实现政治变革是世界各地的普遍现象。Singer和Small（1994）将1820年至1990年期间至少造成1，000人死亡的内战数量定为137。据估计，第二次世界大战后内战造成的死亡人数至少为1620万人（Fearon and Laitin 2003）。根据班克斯（1997）收集的数据，在1919年至1997年期间，世界各地发生了500多次游击战。在同一时期，发生了近1 500起出于政治动机的暗杀或企图暗杀高级政府官员或政治家的事件，每三周发生一起。班克斯对类似数量的反对中央政府的革命或叛乱行为以及大约4,000起政治骚乱进行了编码，几乎每周一次。第一代研究政治暴力原因的研究者强调存在“结构性”原因来解释内战和游击战。现代化学者将叛乱追溯到经济不平等（Muller 1985; Paige 1975; Russett 1964）以及经济现代化的影响和特定社会群体的地位或主张（亨廷顿1968; Wolf 1969; Gurr 1973）。后来的研究将暴力冲突与种族民族主义联系起来（Horowitz 1985;康纳1994）。最近，研究内战的学者对前一代学者的核心假设提出了强烈的批评，即反叛活动发生在“不满情绪严重到人们想要进行暴力抗议”的时候（Collier and Hoeffler 2001，2）。根据这一立场，经济怨恨、种族对立和个人或派系怨恨的存在也是一个问题。
The use of systematic and organized violence to effect political change is a generalized phenomenon around the world. Singer and Small (1994) put at 137 the number of civil wars that killed at least 1,000 during the period from 1820 to 1990. The death toll from civil wars fought after World War II has been estimated at a minimum of 16.2 million (Fearon and Laitin 2003). According to the data gathered by Banks (1997), between 1919 and 1997 there were over 500 spells of guerrilla warfare around the world. In the same period of time, close to 1,500 politically motivated assassinations or attempted assassinations of high government officials or politicians were committed – at a rate of one every three weeks. Banks codes a similar number of revolutionary or rebellious acts against the central government and about 4,000 political riots – or almost one per week. A first generation of researchers working on the causes of political violence emphasized the presence of “structural” causes to explain civil wars and guerrilla warfare. Modernization scholars traced rebellion to economic inequality (Muller 1985; Paige 1975; Russett 1964) and the impact of economic modernization and the position or claims of particular social groups (Huntington 1968; Wolf 1969; Gurr 1973). A later line of research related violent conflict to ethnic nationalism (Horowitz 1985; Connor 1994). More recently, scholars working on civil wars have offered a strong critique of the central assumption made by the former generation of scholars that rebellious activities occur when “grievances are sufficiently acute that people want to engage in violent protest” (Collier and Hoeffler 2001, 2). According to this position, the presence of economic resentments, ethnic antagonisms, and personal or clique grudges are too