Social and News Media Enable Estimation of Epidemiological Patterns Early in the 2010 Haitian Cholera Outbreak
Social and News Media Enable Estimation of Epidemiological Patterns Early in the 2010 Haitian Cholera Outbreak
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0597
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Brownstein, John S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chunara, Rumi;Andrews, Jason R.;Brownstein, John S.
在传染病暴发期间，通过卫生机构和官方报告结构收集的数据可能数周内无法获得，这妨碍了早期流行病学评估。相比之下，来自非正式媒体的数据通常是近实时的，可以提供对流行病动态的早期估计。我们评估了2010年海地霍乱爆发前100天与霍乱相关的HealthMap新闻媒体报道、Twitter帖子和政府霍乱病例报告量的相关性。非正式来源数量的趋势在时间上与官方案件数据显著相关，最多可提前两周获得。估计的繁殖数量范围从1.在最初的爆发增长期间，1.54到6.89（非正式来源）和1.27到3.72（官方来源），而在飓风托马斯袭击海地时，1.04到1.51（非正式）和1.06到1.73（官方来源）。非正式数据可与官方数据在暴发情况下互补使用，以及时估计疾病动态。
During infectious disease outbreaks, data collected through health institutions and official reporting structures may not be available for weeks, hindering early epidemiologic assessment. By contrast, data from informal media are typically available in near real-time and could provide earlier estimates of epidemic dynamics. We assessed correlation of volume of cholera-related HealthMap news media reports, Twitter postings, and government cholera cases reported in the first 100 days of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak. Trends in volume of informal sources significantly correlated in time with official case data and was available up to 2 weeks earlier. Estimates of the reproductive number ranged from 1..54 to 6.89 (informal sources) and 1.27 to 3.72 (official sources) during the initial outbreak growth period, and 1.04 to 1.51 (informal) and 1.06 to 1.73 (official) when Hurricane Tomas afflicted Haiti. Informal data can be used complementarily with official data in an outbreak setting to get timely estimates of disease dynamics.