REGIONAL GROWTH AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN JAPAN
REGIONAL GROWTH AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN JAPAN
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DOI：
10.1111/rurd.12072
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yoshihiro Ohtsuka;Kazuhiko Kakamu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yoshihiro Ohtsuka;Kazuhiko Kakamu
这项研究从贝叶斯的角度考察了日本国家和地区商业周期的一致性和差距。东京单极体制始于20世纪70年代中期，最近的描述性统计数据(如移民和人均收入)表明，尽管上世纪90年代经济泡沫破裂和雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产等严重危机，该体制仍在继续。我们利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法建立了一个时空马尔可夫切换模型，探讨了系统中国家和地区经济周期之间的关系。我们的实证结果表明，总体上，包括东京在内的关东地区的区域经济周期与国家经济周期是一致的。此外，我们发现，空间依存度的变化发生在经济周期的转折点附近，而且在经济衰退期间，空间依存度往往更高。
This study examines the consistency and gaps in national and regional business cycles in Japan from a Bayesian point of view. The Tokyo monopolar system started in the mid†1970s, and recent descriptive statistics, such as migration and per capita income, show that the system continues, despite severe crises such as the burst of the 1990s economic bubble and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. We explore the relationship between national and regional business cycles in the system using a spatio†temporal Markov†switching model with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our empirical results show that overall, the regional business cycle in the Kanto region, including Tokyo, is identical to the national business cycle. Moreover, we find that switches in the degree of spatial dependency occur around the turning points of business cycles, and that the degree of spatial dependency tends to be higher during a recession.