Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Part 1: Final size comparison between a single dose and double dose
Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Part 1: Final size comparison between a single dose and double dose
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DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2022348
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kobayashi, Tetsuro;Nishiura, Hiroshi
为应对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行，日本进行了大规模疫苗接种。获得了7200万剂疫苗（即，如果计划每人接种两剂疫苗，则为3600万人接种），初步接种对象为老年人口（>= 65岁）。由于疫苗数量有限，政府讨论将计划改为只注射一剂，以便年轻人（65岁以下）也可以接种一剂疫苗。本研究旨在用简单的数学方法确定最佳疫苗分配策略。在考虑了单剂和双剂疫苗接种后年龄依赖的相对易感性(分别与未接种疫苗相比v（s)和v(d)）后，我们使用年龄依赖的传播模型来计算各种疫苗分布模式的最终大小。根据v(s)值的不同，如果将所有7200万剂作为老年人的双剂量使用，则累积死亡风险将低于进行单剂量方案，其中一半给老年人，另一半给成年人（即，前者方案中有1,856,000人死亡，后者方案中有1,833,000-2,355,000人死亡[取决于v(s)值]）。即使90%的老年人接种两次疫苗，100%的成年人接种一次疫苗，有效繁殖数也会从2.50降至1.14。此外，感染的累积风险将在12.0%至54.6%之间，死亡人数将在42.1万至1 588万之间（取决于v(s)的值）。如果流行病是在完成疫苗接种后才出现的，那么在成年人中广泛接种疫苗的单剂量计划的疫苗接种覆盖率不会超过双剂量策略。
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Japan conducted mass vaccination. Seventy-two million doses of vaccine (i.e., for 36 million people if a double dose is planned per person) were obtained, with initial vaccination of the older population (>= 65 years). Because of the limited number of vaccines, the government discussed shifting the plan to administering only a single dose so that younger individuals (< 65 years) could also be vaccinated with one shot. This study aimed to determine the optimal vaccine distribution strategy using a simple mathematical method. After accounting for age-dependent relative susceptibility after single- and double-dose vaccination (v(s) and v(d), respectively, compared with unvaccinated), we used the age-dependent transmission model to compute the final size for various patterns of vaccine distributions. Depending on the values of v(s), the cumulative risk of death would be lower if all 72 million doses were used as a double dose for older people than if a single-dose program was conducted in which half is administered to older people and the other half is administered to adults (i.e., 1,856,000 deaths in the former program and 1,833,000-2,355,000 deaths [depending on the values of v(s)] in the latter). Even if 90% of older people were vaccinated twice and 100% of adults were vaccinated once, the effective reproduction number would be reduced from 2.50 to1.14. Additionally, the cumulative risk of infection would range from 12.0% to 54.6% and there would be 421,000-1,588,000deaths (depending on the values of v(s)). If an epidemic appears only after completing vaccination, vaccination coverage using a single-dose program with widespread vaccination among adults will not outperform a double-dose strategy.