I. INTRODUCTION
I. INTRODUCTION
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DOI：
10.1080/02681307.2012.746022
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发表时间：
2012-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shashank V. Joshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shashank V. Joshi
六年前，即2006年年中，伊朗没有离心机在运转，也没有浓缩铀。美国负责军备控制的副国务卿罗伯特·约瑟夫（RobertJoseph）在那一年宣称：“我们不能让伊朗有一台离心机在运转。伊朗是对美国及其盟友国家安全的直接威胁。今天，在巴拉克·奥巴马总统准备开始他的第二个任期之际，伊朗已经安装了9 000多台离心机，并生产了6 876公斤浓缩到3.5%的铀，即低浓缩铀。到2012年年底，伊朗可以轻而易举地将铀浓缩到20%（仍然是低浓缩铀，但为清楚起见，这里称之为中浓缩铀），如果进一步浓缩到武器级，就足以制造一枚核弹。伊朗转而选择将其大部分MEU库存转化为反应堆燃料，但目前尚不清楚它是否会继续这样做。伊朗核活动的步伐加快，其“核潜伏”程度越来越高，一个国家在时间和技术上接近获得可用的核装置，这在包括伊朗的阿拉伯对手在内的一些国家中产生了紧迫感。面对前所未有的压力，伊朗顽强地追求核技术，这也给伊朗国家本身带来了新的压力。事实上，伊朗前高级外交官赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安在他最近出版的回忆录中指出，“核危机是自1980年伊朗和伊朗之间的88战争以来伊斯兰共和国外交政策机构面临的最重要挑战”。
Six years ago, in mid-2006, Iran had no centrifuges spinning and possessed no enriched uranium. Robert Joseph, the US under secretary of state for arms control, declared that year: ‘we cannot have a single centrifuge spinning in Iran. Iran is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and our allies’. Today, as President Barack Obama prepares to begin his second term, Iran has installed over 9,000 centrifuges, and has produced 6,876 kg of uranium enriched to 3.5 per cent, known as low-enriched uranium (LEU). By the end of 2012, Iran could easily have enriched enough uranium to 20 per cent (still LEU, but described here as medium-enriched uranium, or ‘MEU’, for clarity) to suffice for one nuclear bomb, if that were enriched further to weapons-grade. Iran instead chose to convert much of its MEU stockpile into reactor fuel, but it is not clear whether it will continue to do so. The quickening pace of Iran’s nuclear activities, and its growing degree of ‘nuclear latency’ a state’s temporal and technical proximity to acquiring a usable nuclear device has produced a sense of urgency amongst a number of countries, including Arab rivals of Iran. Iran’s dogged pursuit of nuclear technology in the face of unprecedented pressure has also placed new stresses on the Iranian state itself. Indeed, a former senior Iranian diplomat, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, observes in his recently released memoirs that ‘the nuclear crisis has been the most important challenge facing the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy apparatus since the 1980 88 war between Iran and Iraq’.