Estimating the impact of school closure on social mixing behaviour and the transmission of close contact infections in eight European countries
Estimating the impact of school closure on social mixing behaviour and the transmission of close contact infections in eight European countries
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-9-187
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发表时间：
2009-11-27
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Beutels, Philippe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hens, Niel;Ayele, Girma Minalu;Beutels, Philippe
背景：传染病的数学模型越来越多地用于帮助指导公共卫生政策。由于流感和结核病等直接传播感染需要个体之间的接触，因此了解接触模式是准确预测模型的必要先决条件。特别令人感兴趣的是，作为控制大流行性流感（以及潜在的其他病原体）的一种手段，关闭学校可能产生的影响。方法：本文采用基于人群的前瞻性混合模式调查，在8个欧洲国家研究了基本繁殖数（R-0 -完全易感人群中典型原发性病例的平均继发性病例数）在工作日与周末以及常规与假日期间的相对变化。假日和周末期间R-0的相对变化表明，在大流行期间集体关闭学校（和预防性缺勤）可能产生的影响。结果：社交模式在工作日与周末、常规时间与假日期间相比有很大差异，主要是由于工作和/或学校接触的减少。对于大多数国家来说，从每周到周末和从常规到假日期间，基本繁殖数量分别减少约21%和17%。然而，其他国家没有观察到明显的下降。结论：我们在8个不同的欧洲国家进行了大规模的社会接触调查，以了解工作日与周末以及常规与假日期间基本繁殖数量的相对变化。由此得出的估计数表明，关闭学校可对一种通过密切（非性）接触传播的新出现的传染病的传播产生重大影响。
Background: Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is increasingly used to help guide public health policy. As directly transmitted infections, such as influenza and tuberculosis, require contact between individuals, knowledge about contact patterns is a necessary pre-requisite of accurate model predictions. Of particular interest is the potential impact of school closure as a means of controlling pandemic influenza (and potentially other pathogens).Methods: This paper uses a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries to study the relative change in the basic reproduction number (R-0 - the average number of secondary cases from a typical primary case in a fully susceptible population) on weekdays versus weekends and during regular versus holiday periods. The relative change in R-0 during holiday periods and weekends gives an indication of the impact collective school closures (and prophylactic absenteeism) may have during a pandemic.Results: Social contact patterns differ substantially when comparing weekdays to the weekend and regular to holiday periods mainly due to the reduction in work and/or school contacts. For most countries the basic reproduction number decreases from the week to weekends and regular to holiday periods by about 21% and 17%, respectively. However for other countries no significant decrease was observed.Conclusion: We use a large-scale social contact survey in eight different European countries to gain insights in the relative change in the basic reproduction number on weekdays versus weekends and during regular versus holiday periods. The resulting estimates indicate that school closure can have a substantial impact on the spread of a newly emerging infectious disease that is transmitted via close (non sexual) contacts.