Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks
Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks
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DOI：
10.1162/rest_a_00826
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Sheng, Xuguang S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker, Scott R.;McElroy, Tucker S.;Sheng, Xuguang S.
通过将个人宏观预测数据的大型数据库与54个国家的大规模自然灾害的宇宙相匹配，我们确定了一组新的程式化事实：预测者在发布或修改预测的频率方面持续存在差异;信息刚性在大型意外自然灾害冲击后显着下降;不注意的代理人之间的分歧减少，而注意力集中的代理人可能会增加。我们开发了一个学习模型，捕捉两个渠道，通过自然灾害冲击影响预期的形成：注意力效应-明显的大冲击诱导即时和同步更新的信息不注意的代理和不确定性效应-注意的代理可能会增加他们的私人信息的收购，以弥补冲击后更高的不确定性。
By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures the two channels through which natural disaster shocks affect expectation formation: attention effect-the visibly large shocks induce immediate and synchronized updating of information for inattentive agents-and uncertainty effect-attentive agents might increase their acquisition of private information to compensate for the higher uncertainty after shocks.