Predicting US Residential Building Energy Use and Indoor Pollutant Exposures in the Mid-21st Century
Predicting US Residential Building Energy Use and Indoor Pollutant Exposures in the Mid-21st Century
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.0c06308
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发表时间：
2021-02-16
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Stephens, Brent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fazli, Torkan;Dong, Xinyi;Stephens, Brent
气候变化和其他因素将在多大程度上影响建筑物的能源使用和人们对室内污染物的暴露，目前还不清楚。在这里，我们开发和应用具有全国代表性的住宅能源和室内污染物模型集，以估计21世纪中叶美国住宅建筑库存的能源使用、室内污染物浓度和相关的慢性健康后果。这些模型纳入了与IPCC RCP 8.5相关的气象和环境空气质量条件的预期变化，以及对住房特征和人口流动变化的假设，同时保持其他较难预测的因素不变。与2010年代的参考情景相比，预计到本世纪50年代，住宅空间空调的场地和源能耗将分别减少约37-43和20-31%。人口-环境来源的污染物的室内平均浓度预计将下降，但O-3除外。在保持室内排放系数不变的情况下，间歇性室内污染源的室内污染物浓度预计将下降30%(NO2)；持久性室内污染源(例如挥发性有机化合物(VOCs))的室内污染物浓度预计将增加15%-45%。我们估计，与住宅室内污染物暴露相关的伤残调整寿命损失年(DALY)的变化可以忽略不计，完全在不确定性范围内，尽管污染物之间的归属预计会有所不同。
The extent to which climate change and other factors will influence building energy use and population exposures to indoor pollutants is not well understood. Here, we develop and apply nationally representative residential energy and indoor pollutant model sets to estimate energy use, indoor pollutant concentrations, and associated chronic health outcomes across the U.S. residential building stock in the mid-21st century. The models incorporate expected changes in meteorological and ambient air quality conditions associated with IPCC RCP 8.5 and assumptions for changes in housing characteristics and population movements while keeping other less predictable factors constant. Site and source energy consumption for residential space-conditioning are predicted to decrease by similar to 37-43 and similar to 20-31%, respectively, in the 2050s compared to those in a 2010s reference scenario. Population-average indoor concentrations of pollutants of ambient origin are expected to decrease, except for O-3. Holding indoor emission factors constant, indoor concentrations of pollutants with intermittent indoor sources are expected to decrease by 30% (NO2); indoor concentrations of pollutants with persistent indoor sources (e.g., volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) are predicted to increase by similar to 15-45%. We estimate negligible changes in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost associated with residential indoor pollutant exposures, well within uncertainty, although the attribution among pollutants is predicted to vary.