An effective early death scoring system for predicting early death risk in de novo acute promyelocytic leukemia
An effective early death scoring system for predicting early death risk in de novo acute promyelocytic leukemia
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DOI：
10.1080/10428194.2020.1742910
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发表时间：
2020-03-30
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Chen, Suning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, Ping;Wu, Qian;Chen, Suning
Sanz危险度最初用于预测急性早幼粒细胞白血病（APL）复发的危险度，目前已被公认为是预测APL预后的一种方法。约570例初治APL患者被随机分为训练队列（N = 344）和验证队列（N = 226）。多因素分析显示年龄>52岁（OR = 5.170，p = .002）、白色细胞计数>10 × 10（9）/L（OR = 9.062，p < .001）、血小板计数500 U/L（OR= 3.002，p = .046）是早期死亡的独立危险因素。风险评分（年龄>52岁：1.5分; WBC >10 x 10（9）/L：2分; PLT 500 U/L：1分）用于预测早期死亡风险。与Sanz风险分层相比，该模型在训练队列和验证队列中显示出更好的早期死亡预测能力。
The Sanz risk, which was originally used to predict the risk of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) relapse, is a recognized method to predict the prognosis of APL. About 570 de novo APL patients admitted to our center were randomly divided into a training cohort (N = 344) and validation cohort (N = 226). Multivariate analysis of training cohort demonstrated that age >52 (OR = 5.170, p = .002), white blood cell count >10 x 10(9)/L (OR = 9.062, p < .001), PLT count 500 U/L (OR= 3.002, p = .046) were independent risk factors for early death. A risk score (age >52: 1.5 points; WBC >10 x 10(9)/L: 2 points; PLT 500 U/L: 1 point) was used to predict early death risk. The model shows a better predictive power of early death in training cohort and validation cohort compared with Sanz risk stratification.