The Paris Agreement and Climate Justice: Inequitable Impacts of Sea Level Rise Associated With Temperature Targets
The Paris Agreement and Climate Justice: Inequitable Impacts of Sea Level Rise Associated With Temperature Targets
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002940
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发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shaina Sadai;R. Spector;R. DeConto;N. Gomez
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文献类型：
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作者：
Shaina Sadai;R. Spector;R. DeConto;N. Gomez
人为的温室气体排放正在给气候造成前所未有的变化。2015年，在法国巴黎举行的联合国缔约方会议上，各国同意将全球平均温度（GMT）的增幅限制在工业化前水平以上2°C，并努力将升温限制在1.5°C。由于海平面上升（SLR）的长期不可逆性，到2100年限制格林尼治标准时间变暖的目标并没有很好地概括对岛屿和沿海人口的风险。鉴于我们对海平面上升的空间变化影响和长期承诺的日益了解，本文综述了温度目标对气候正义的影响。我们特别强调SLR将对岛屿国家产生的影响，以及小岛屿国家联盟在联合国气候谈判中的作用。作为一个案例研究，我们回顾了气候变化下南极冰盖的双重影响：(a)最近的气候和冰盖模型表明，南极融化有可能导致具有独特空间格局的快速SLR，导致小岛屿国家经历的SLR至少比全球平均水平高11%，最高可达33%；(b)未来冰盖融化将对格林尼治标准时间产生负反馈，从而延缓温度上升。当综合考虑这些影响时，与《巴黎协定》相关的司法问题就会加剧。
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing unprecedented changes to the climate. In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Conference of the Parties in Paris, France, countries agreed to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Due to the long‐term irreversibility of sea level rise (SLR), risks to island and coastal populations are not well encapsulated by the goal of limiting GMT warming by 2100. This review article investigates the climate justice implications of temperature targets in light of our increasing understanding of the spatially variable impact and long temporal commitment to rising seas. In particular we highlight the impact that SLR will have on island states and the role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in UN climate negotiations. As a case study we review dual impacts from the Antarctic Ice Sheet under a changing climate: (a) recent climate and ice sheet modeling shows that Antarctic melt has the potential to cause rapid SLR with a distinct spatial pattern leading to AOSIS nations experiencing SLR at least 11% higher than the global average and up to 33% higher; and (b) future ice sheet melt will result in a negative feedback on GMT, thus delaying temperature rise. When considering these impacts in conjunction, justice concerns associated with the Paris Agreement are exacerbated.