Where is the risk? Price, yield and cost risk in Swiss crop production
Where is the risk? Price, yield and cost risk in Swiss crop production
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风险在哪里？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Finger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Benni;R. Finger
风险管理战略在农业中越来越重要。一个重要的问题是，需要什么样的风险管理战略来减少农民的收入风险？本文采用方差分解方法，使用来自3,000多个瑞士农场的五年期数据，量化了产量、价格和成本对农场净收入变化的直接和间接影响。我们发现，成本在决定收入波动性方面只起很小的作用，但价格和产量风险是最重要的，并且非常具体的作物。例如，价格风险对传统的小麦和甜菜生产者占主导地位;而玉米和大麦生产者往往遭受更多的生产风险。组比较和逻辑回归结果表明，更密集的生产农场往往遭受更多的价格风险，而产量风险是占主导地位的不太密集的生产者。
Risk management strategies are of increasing importance in agriculture. An important question is what type of risk management strategies are required to reduce farmers’ income risks? Applying a variance decomposition approach using data from more than 3,000 Swiss farms over a five-year period, this paper quantifies the direct and indirect effects of yields, prices and costs on net revenue variability at the farm level. We find that costs play only a minor role in determining income variability, but price and yield risks are of outmost importance and very crop-specific. For instance, price risks dominate for conventional wheat and sugar beet producers; while corn and barley producers tend to suffer more from production risks. Group comparisons and logistic regressions results show that more intensively producing farms tend to suffer more from price risk, while yield risks are dominant for less intensive producers.