Education and Health: Redrawing the Preston Curve
Education and Health: Redrawing the Preston Curve
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/padr.12141
复制
发表时间：
2018-06-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Kebede, Endale
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lutz, Wolfgang;Kebede, Endale
我们重温了普雷斯顿1975年发表的一篇极具影响力的文章，该文章探讨了收入与预期寿命之间不断变化的关系，这篇文章已成为该领域的标准参考。它也被用来作为过于简单化（根据我们的分析误导）的声明的基础，即收入增长是预期寿命增长的关键驱动力。在这里，我们探讨了另一种假设，即教育程度的提高可以更好地解释所观察到的预期寿命的增加。除了健康之外，人力资本也是经济增长的一个关键驱动力，这一事实可能导致收入和预期寿命之间存在一种基本上虚假的经验关联。我们的文章使用1970-2015年的国家级时间序列数据，在描述性视觉和多变量统计分析中证实了这一备择假设，并在儿童死亡率方面显示了同样的情况。这一结果对改善全球卫生的政策优先事项产生了深远影响。
We revisit a highly influential 1975 article by Preston on the changing relationship between income and life expectancy which has become a standard reference in the field. It also was used as basis for overly simplistic (and according to our analysis misleading) statements that income growth is the key driver of growth in life expectancy. Here we explore the alternative hypothesis that improvements in educational attainment can better explain the observed increases in life expectancy. The fact that human capital is also a key driver of economic growth in addition to health could result in a largely spurious empirical association between income and life expectancy. Our article confirms this alternative hypothesis both in descriptive visual and in multivariate statistical analysis using national-level time series data for 1970-2015 and shows the same with respect to child mortality. This result has far-reaching consequences for policy priorities for improving global health.