Non‐linear time‐series analysis of the interaction between the citrus whitefly and the whitefly‐specialist ladybird
Non‐linear time‐series analysis of the interaction between the citrus whitefly and the whitefly‐specialist ladybird
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DOI：
10.1111/jen.13021
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Suzuki Noriyuki;Kazutaka Kawatsu;S. Kaneko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Suzuki Noriyuki;Kazutaka Kawatsu;S. Kaneko
全面了解天敌对农业害虫的自上而下的影响对于在害虫综合管理中实现有效的生物控制至关重要。然而，通常很难从时间序列数据中确定相互作用物种之间的因果关系，这些数据通常被监测用于农业生态系统中的害虫预测目的，因为它可能涉及非线性（状态依赖）种群动态。在这项研究中，我们应用了一个最近开发的非线性时间序列分析框架（经验动态模型）来确定柑橘粉虱Dialeurodes citri和粉虱专家瓢虫Serangium japonicum之间的自上而下和自下而上的影响。我们使用了在日本中部静冈县的无农药格罗夫斯林中收集的4年以上的两个物种的每周监测数据。虽然我们能够确定D的延迟积极影响。citri丰度在S.日本血吸虫丰度，我们未能检测到任何显着的因果关系的影响。japonicum丰度在D.柑橘丰富。此外，天气变量（温度和降雨量）被发现只有一个可以忽略不计的影响，这两个物种的种群动态。我们的研究结果表明，自下而上，而不是自上而下的影响占主导地位的每周动态的捕食者-猎物系统。在此基础上，讨论了S.因此，日本血吸虫是一种有效的生物防治药剂。柑橘在露天系统中的应用
A comprehensive understanding of the top‐down effects of natural enemies on agricultural pests is essential for achieving effective biological control in integrated pest management. However, it is typically difficult to identify causal effects between the interacting species from time‐series data, which have often been monitored for pest forecasting purposes in agricultural ecosystems, as it is likely to involve non‐linear (state‐dependent) population dynamics. In this study, we applied a recently developed framework of non‐linear time‐series analysis (empirical dynamic modelling) to determine top‐down and bottom‐up effects between the citrus whitefly Dialeurodes citri and the whitefly‐specialist ladybird Serangium japonicum. We used weekly monitoring data for the two species collected over 4 years in pesticide‐free citrus groves located in Shizuoka Prefecture, central Japan. Although we were able to identify time‐delayed positive effects of D. citri abundance on S. japonicum abundance, we failed to detect any significant causal effects of S. japonicum abundance on D. citri abundance. Moreover, weather variables (temperature and rainfall) were found to have only a negligible effect on the population dynamics of the two species. Our findings indicate that bottom‐up rather than top‐down effects predominate in the weekly dynamics of this predator–prey system. On the basis of these observations, we discuss whether S. japonicum would be an effective agent for the biological control of D. citri in open‐field systems.