Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century
Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century
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DOI：
10.1007/s11434-010-3209-1
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Qingxiang Li;W. Dong;Wei Li;Xiao-Ning Gao;Philip Jones;John J. Kennedy;David Parker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qingxiang Li;W. Dong;Wei Li;Xiao-Ning Gao;Philip Jones;John J. Kennedy;David Parker
我们使用中国均一历史气温数据集和CRUTEM3（自1900年以来的5°×5°月平均气温网格数据集）的一些邻国长期站系列，提供了107年的地表温度趋势和变化记录。我们得出了一套全面的不确定性估计值来配合数据：测量和采样误差、温度偏差估计的不确定性以及大规模平均值有限观测覆盖范围所产生的不确定性都已被估计。我们重新分析了记录期间的温度变化。对 1900-2006 年趋势的最佳估计，在 95% 置信范围内的不确定性约为全年 0.09±0.017°C/十年，以及 0.14±0.021°C/十年、0.11±0.021°C/十年、0.04±0.017°C/十年，以及冬季、春季、夏季和秋季分别为 0.07±0.017°C/十年。 1954-2006年，每年、冬季、春季、夏季和秋季的趋势分别为：0.26±0.032℃/十年、0.35±0.046℃/十年、0.25±0.051℃/十年、0.16±0.037℃/十年和0.22±0.055℃/十年。 1900-2006年和1954-2006年冬季的变暖趋势最为显着，而在最近一段时期（卫星时代，1979-2006年），所有季节都表现出相似的变暖趋势：0.45±0.13°C/十年，0.51±0.11°C/十年，0.52±0.16°C/十年，每年、冬季、春季、夏季和秋季为 0.37±0.10°C/十年和 0.50±0.16°C/十年。据评估，城市化引起的趋势不到 1951-2001 年总变暖趋势的 5%，因此这种偏差并未消除。
We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3, a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900, to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability. We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data: measurement and sampling errors, uncertainties in temperature bias estimates, and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated. We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record. The best estimates of trends for 1900–2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017°C/decade for the year as a whole, and 0.14±0.021°C/decade, 0.11±0.021°C/decade, 0.04±0.017°C/decade, and 0.07±0.017°C/decade for winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively. For 1954–2006, the trends for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn are: 0.26±0.032°C/decade, 0.35±0.046°C/decade, 0.25±0.051°C/decade, 0.16±0.037°C/decade and 0.22±0.055°C/decade. Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900–2006 and 1954–2006, while during the most recent period (the satellite era, 1979–2006), all the seasons show similar warming trends: 0.45±0.13°C/decade, 0.51±0.11°C/decade, 0.52±0.16°C/decade, 0.37±0.10°C/decade and 0.50±0.16°C/decade for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn. Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951–2001, so this bias was not removed.