Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity and sea level contribution in the mid-Pliocene warm period – Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project PLISMIP
Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity and sea level contribution in the mid-Pliocene warm period – Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project PLISMIP
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上新世中期温暖期格陵兰冰盖敏感性和海平面贡献 – 上新世冰盖模型比对项目 PLISMIP
DOI：
10.5194/cpd-10-2821-2014
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Wal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Koenig;A. Dolan;B. Boer;E. Stone;D. J. Hill;R. DeConto;A. Abe‐Ouchi;D. Lunt;D. Pollard;A. Quiquet;F. Saito;J. Savage;R. Wal
了解过去温暖时期冰盖的性质和行为对于限制未来气候变化的潜在影响非常重要。上新世中期温暖期（2.97 至 3.29 Ma）的全球气温与预测的未来气候相似，但上新世冰的位置和范围仍然受到很少的限制。我们展示了通过国际上新世冰盖建模比对项目 (PLISMIP) 模拟上新世中期格陵兰冰盖的结果。我们通过一系列以可用代理记录为指导的敏感性实验，比较了现有数值冰盖模型在模拟现代控制和中新世冰盖方面的性能。我们量化了格陵兰岛的平衡冰盖体积，确定了上新世温暖情景对海平面贡献的潜在范围。执行一系列统计措施来量化模拟的置信度，重点关注模型间和场景间的差异。我们发现，上新世格陵兰冰盖对冰盖模型配置和内部物理量的差异的敏感度低于对施加的气候强迫的变化的敏感度。我们得出的结论是，上新世冰很可能仅限于东部和南部的最高海拔地区，这是通过最高置信度模拟并综合可用的区域代理数据得出的结论，尽管这些冰盖的范围需要通过使用一系列 GCM 气候强迫来进一步限制。
The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important to constrain the potential impacts of future climate change. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (2.97 to 3.29 Ma) has global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates, nevertheless Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from the efforts to simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheets by means of the international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). We compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models in simulating modern control and mid-Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of sensitivity experiments guided by available proxy records. We quantify equilibrated ice sheet volume on Greenland, identifying a potential range in sea level contributions from warm Pliocene scenarios. A series of statistical measures are performed to quantify the confidence of simulations with focus on inter-model and inter-scenario differences. We find that Pliocene Greenland ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations and internal physical quantities, than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in East and South as simulated with the highest confidence and by synthesizing available regional proxies, although extents of those ice caps need to be further constrained by using a range of GCM climate forcings.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Haywood, A. M.;Dowsett, H. J.;Chandler, M. A.
通讯作者：
Chandler, M. A.
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2010.0317
发表时间：
2011-03-13
影响因子：
5
作者：
Haywood, Alan M.;Ridgwell, Andy;Williams, Mark
通讯作者：
Williams, Mark
模拟冰盖的动力学
DOI：
10.1177/030913339301700401
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
Earth and Environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hindmarsh R
通讯作者：
Hindmarsh R