Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza
Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza
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DOI：
10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00156-7
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发表时间：
2003-06-20
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Grenfell, BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Park, AW;Wood, JLN;Grenfell, BT
构建了马流感(EI)的随机模型，以评估典型平地赛训练场纯种马种群暴发的风险。该模型使用动物健康信托基金进行的马匹挑战实验的数据(与动物的潜伏期和感染期有关)和以前疫情的公布数据(以估计马流感的传播率)作为参数。使用89匹小马，利用Logistic回归建立了攻击前抗体与感染概率之间的经验关系。抗体水平随时间的变化是使用包括618匹小马和马的已发表和未发表的研究来量化的。在一年的时间里，对可能的纯种种群进行了检查，根据英国目前的最低疫苗接种政策，该模型被用来评估院子里爆发EL的风险。该模型被调整以考虑另一种疫苗接种方案，在该方案中，年龄较大的马(2岁及以上)的疫苗接种频率增加。模型结果表明，这种实用的替代方案将显著增加保护。感染在院子之间的传播也被认为是为了确定二次暴发的风险。(C)2003爱思唯尔科学有限公司。保留所有权利。
A stochastic model of equine influenza (EI) is constructed to assess the risk of an outbreak in a Thoroughbred population at a typical flat race training yard. The model is parameterised using data from equine challenge experiments conducted by the Animal Health Trust (relating to the latent and infectious period of animals) and also published data on previous epidemics (to estimate the transmission rate for equine influenza). Using 89 ponies, an empirical relationship between pre-challenge antibody and the probability of becoming infectious is established using logistic regression. Changes in antibody level over time are quantified using published and unpublished studies comprising 618 ponies and horses. A plausible Thoroughbred population is examined over the course of a year and the model is used to assess the risk of an outbreak of El in the yard under the current minimum vaccination policy in the UK. The model is adapted to consider an alternative vaccination programme where the frequency of vaccination in older horses (2-year-olds and upwards) is increased. Model results show that this practical alternative would offer a significant increase in protection. Spread of infection between yards is also considered to ascertain the risk of secondary outbreaks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.