Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River, Xinjiang, China
Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River, Xinjiang, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s12665-011-1048-2
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发表时间：
2011-04
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Hongbo Ling;Hailiang Xu;W. Shi;Qingqing Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hongbo Ling;Hailiang Xu;W. Shi;Qingqing Zhang
根据玛纳斯河流域源头6个气象站和肯斯瓦特水文站记录的近50年水文气象数据，分析了气候变化对年径流的影响。通过非参数检验确定了气候变化和水文变化的长期趋势，并采用周期方差分析的外推法确定了周期性。随后，使用周期性趋势叠加模型来预测未来的变化。结果表明，气候因素（气温、降水）与径流均显着增加，且存在显着关系；温度与径流的关系更为显着。年径流变化的周期为18年，气温和降水变化的主周期分别为3年和15年。径流变化受源头气候变化的影响，但不会与源头温度和降水的突变同时发生变化。冬季北大西洋涛动 (NAO) 与径流之间存在显着的正相关关系，而每年和夏季则存在负相关关系，径流滞后 NAO 1 年。 NAO对气候变化有一定的影响，主要是由于玛纳斯河流域的大气环流，从而影响径流。
The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff.