The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.
The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.
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DOI：
10.1093/trstmh/trv050
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发表时间：
2015-08
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Hay SI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Messina JP;Pigott DM;Golding N;Duda KA;Brownstein JS;Weiss DJ;Gibson H;Robinson TP;Gilbert M;William Wint GR;Nuttall PA;Gething PW;Myers MF;George DB;Hay SI
克里米亚-刚果出血热 (CCHF) 是一种由布尼亚病毒科病毒 (CCHFV) 引起的蜱传感染。家养和野生脊椎动物是该病毒的无症状宿主，使动物饲养员、屠宰场工人和农业劳动者在流行地区面临最高风险，并可能通过接触受感染的血液和其他体液进行二次传播。人类感染的特点是严重症状，常常导致死亡。虽然众所周知，CCHFV 传播仅限于非洲、亚洲和欧洲，但这些范围内的明确全球范围和风险模式尚未得到很好的描述。我们使用详尽的人类 CCHF 发生记录数据库和利基建模框架来绘制人类 CCHF 发生风险的全球分布。更大比例的灌木或草地覆盖是我们模型的最重要贡献因素，该模型预测黑海、土耳其和中亚部分地区的风险水平最高。撒哈拉以南非洲地区的整个萨赫勒和开普地区的风险更为集中。这些新的风险图为了解 CCHF 的人畜共患生态位、其范围及其对人类造成的风险提供了宝贵的起点。
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids. Human infection is characterized by severe symptoms that often result in death. While it is known that CCHFV transmission is limited to Africa, Asia and Europe, definitive global extents and risk patterns within these limits have not been well described. We used an exhaustive database of human CCHF occurrence records and a niche modeling framework to map the global distribution of risk for human CCHF occurrence. A greater proportion of shrub or grass land cover was the most important contributor to our model, which predicts highest levels of risk around the Black Sea, Turkey, and some parts of central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows more focalized areas of risk throughout the Sahel and the Cape region. These new risk maps provide a valuable starting point for understanding the zoonotic niche of CCHF, its extent and the risk it poses to humans.