The impact of low sulphur fuel requirements in shipping on the competitiveness of roro shipping in Northern Europe
The impact of low sulphur fuel requirements in shipping on the competitiveness of roro shipping in Northern Europe
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DOI：
10.1007/s13437-010-0001-7
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Notteboom, Theo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Notteboom, Theo
《防污公约》附件六旨在减少船舶的硫氧化物排放。 2010 年，排放控制区 (ECA) 海上适用的限值从 1.5% 降至 1%，并计划进一步降至 0.1%，自 2015 年 1 月 1 日起生效。本文分析了 2008 年 10 月通过的附件六修正案中引入的国际海事组织 Tier II/III 标准对北欧 ECA 滚装运输成本和价格的影响以及与卡车运输相比，排放控制区内滚装运输的竞争力。我们证明，新的附件六协议对于航运业参与者来说可能成本相当高，并将导致运费上涨。基于对与排放控制区相关的 30 条始发地-目的地航线上的滚装/卡车选项和“仅卡车”选项之间的模式竞争的详细价格分析，我们得出结论，低硫燃料的使用预计会增加运输价格，特别是在中长短海段的始发地-目的地关系上。本文还介绍了对出口控制区主要近海运营商的调查结果，以期提供有关近海市场预期模式转变和价格弹性的更多见解。
Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention aims for a reduction in sulphur oxide emissions from ships. The limits applicable at sea in Emission Control Areas (ECAs) were reduced from 1.5% to 1% in 2010 and are planned to be further reduced to 0.1%, effective from 1 January 2015. This paper analyses the impact of the International Maritime Organization's Tier II/III standards introduced by Annex VI amendments adopted in October 2008 on costs and prices of roro (roll on/roll oft) traffic in the ECAs in North Europe and on the competitiveness of roro shipping in the ECAs compared to trucking. We demonstrate that the new Annex VI agreement may be quite costly for the participants in the shipping industry and will result in higher freight rates. Based on a detailed price analysis on modal competition between the roro/truck option and the 'truck only' option on thirty origin-destination routes linked to the ECAs, we conclude that the use of low sulphur fuel is expected to increase the transport prices particularly on the origin-destination relations with a medium or long short sea section. The paper also presents the results of a survey among leading short sea operators in the ECAs in view of providing more insight on expected modal shifts and price elasticity in the short sea market.