Linking commercial burglaries by modus operandi:: tests using regression and ROC analysis
Linking commercial burglaries by modus operandi:: tests using regression and ROC analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/s1355-0306(02)71820-0
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发表时间：
2002-07-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Canter, DV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bennell, C;Canter, DV
本文使用统计模型来直接测试警方的做法，利用作案手法，以链接到一个共同的罪犯的犯罪。使用逻辑回归分析，以确定可靠的区分联系和非联系的犯罪对的行为特征，从86个解决的商业盗窃犯犯的43名罪犯进行了分析。然后使用接收器操作特性分析来分配每个行为特征的预测准确性的总体水平。结果表明，某些功能，特别是盗窃地点之间的距离，导致高水平的预测精度。因此，这项研究揭示了商业盗窃行为的一些重要特征。这些都具有理论价值，有助于解释犯罪活动。它们还具有实用价值，为可用于比较案例分析的诊断工具提供了基础。
This paper uses statistical models to test directly the police practice of utilising modus operandi to link crimes to a common offender. Data from 86 solved commercial burglaries committed by 43 offenders are analysed using logistic regression analysis to identify behavioural features that reliably distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Receiver operating characteristic analysis is then used to assign each behavioural feature an overall level of predictive accuracy. The results indicate that certain features, in particular the distances between burglary locations, lead to high levels of predictive accuracy. This study therefore reveals some of the important consistencies in commercial burglary behaviour. These have theoretical value in helping to explain criminal activity. They also have practical value by providing the basis for a diagnostic tool that could be used in comparative case analysis.