Archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems in Europe
Archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems in Europe
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-015-0907-x
复制
发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Kuemmerle, Tobias
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levers, Christian;Mueller, Daniel;Kuemmerle, Tobias
对土地系统变化的评估主要集中在广义土地利用类别之间的转换，而这些类别内部的强度变化受到的关注较少。考虑到这两种土地变化模式通常会导致土地系统变化的不同模式和轨迹，有必要开发方法来降低这种复杂性。以欧洲作为案例研究，我们应用了一种基于自组织映射和12种土地利用指标的聚类方法，以绘制（1）2006年的土地系统原型，定义为土地利用范围和强度的特征模式，以及（2）原型变化轨迹，定义为1990年至2006年这些指标的特征变化。我们的分析确定了15种土地系统原型，其中低强度原型占主导（约55%的覆盖面积），其次是高强度原型（约26%）。在变化方面，我们确定了17种原型变化轨迹，聚类为四大类。稳定的土地系统最为普遍（约占欧盟27国的40%），其次是以土地利用转换为特征的土地系统（约26%）、去集约化趋势（约18%）和集约化趋势（约15%）。集约利用和集约化的土地系统在西欧尤为普遍，而低强度和去集约化的土地系统在欧洲东部占主导。将我们的原型与环境和社会经济因素进行比较后发现，良好的可达性以及有利的地形、气候和土壤条件是集约管理区域的特征。集约化在这些区域也最为常见，这表明在有利区域集约化的持续两极分化以及在更边缘区域的去集约化和废弃趋势。通过提供在空间和主题上有所改进的土地利用模式及其变化的地图，我们的原型可以作为对生态系统服务需求和供给进行更详细评估的有用输入，以及作为对土地系统变化权衡的探索，特别是在土地利用强度方面。此外，它们有助于识别在哪些区域内类似的政策工具可能对制定区域化、因地制宜的土地管理政策有价值，从而引导欧洲土地系统走向理想的路径。
Assessments of land-system change have dominantly focused on conversions among broad land-use categories, whereas intensity changes within these categories have received less attention. Considering that both modes of land change typically result in diverse patterns and trajectories of land-system change, there is a need to develop approaches to reduce this complexity. Using Europe as a case study, we applied a clustering approach based on self-organising maps and 12 land-use indicators to map (1) land-system archetypes for the year 2006, defined as characteristic patterns of land-use extent and intensity, and (2) archetypical change trajectories, defined as characteristic changes in these indicators between 1990 and 2006. Our analysis identified 15 land-system archetypes, with low-intensity archetypes dominating (ca. 55 % coverage) followed by high-intensity archetypes (ca. 26 %). In terms of change, we identified 17 archetypical change trajectories, clustered in four broad categories. Stable land systems were most widespread (ca. 40 % of the EU27), followed by land systems characterised by land-use conversions (ca. 26 %), de-intensification trends (ca. 18 %), and intensification trends (ca. 15 %). Intensively used and intensifying land systems were particularly widespread in Western Europe, whereas low-intensity and de-intensifying land systems dominated in Europe's east. Comparing our archetypes with environmental and socio-economic factors revealed that good accessibility and favourable topographic, climatic, and soil conditions characterised intensively managed areas. Intensification was also most common in these areas, suggesting an ongoing polarisation of intensification in favourable areas and de-intensification and abandonment trends in more marginal areas. By providing spatially and thematically improved maps of land-use patterns and changes therein, our archetypes could serve as useful inputs for more detailed assessments of ecosystem service demand and supply, as well as explorations of land-system change trade-offs, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Further, they could serve useful for identifying regions within which similar policy tools could be valuable to develop regionalised, context-specific land-management policies to steer European land systems onto desired pathways.