Modeling uncertainty in latent class membership: A case study in criminology
Modeling uncertainty in latent class membership: A case study in criminology
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DOI：
10.2307/2669989
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发表时间：
1999-09-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Nagin, DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roeder, K;Lynch, KG;Nagin, DS
社会科学家通常对将潜在特征（例如，犯罪倾向）到可测量的个体协变量（例如，不良的养育），以了解什么定义或可能导致潜在的特质。在这篇文章中，我们开发了一个有效和方便的方法来回答这些问题。基本模型假设已经测量了两种类型的变量：部分确定潜在类别成员资格的响应变量（可能是纵向的），以及我们希望与这些潜在类别变量相关的协变量或风险因素。该模型假设这些可观察变量是条件独立的，给定潜在的类变量。我们使用一个混合模型的联合分布的观察。我们将此模型应用于作为剑桥犯罪发展研究一部分的纵向数据集，以测试犯罪发展的基本理论。这一理论认为，犯罪是由人口中两个不同的群体犯下的：有限犯罪者和终身持续犯罪者。正如这些标签所暗示的那样，这两个群体的区别在于他们犯罪生涯的持久性。该理论还预测，终身持续犯罪者不成比例地由出生时有神经缺陷的人组成，并且由没有技能和资源来有效地社交困难儿童的照顾者抚养。
Social scientists are commonly interested in relating a latent trait (e.g., criminal tendency) to measurable individual covariates (e.g., poor parenting) to understand what defines or perhaps causes the latent trait. In this article we develop an efficient and convenient method for answering such questions. The basic model presumes that two types of variables have been measured: response variables (possibly longitudinal) that partially determine the latent class membership, and covariates or risk factors that we wish to relate to these latent class variables. The model assumes that these observable variables are conditionally independent, given the latent class variable. We use a mixture model for the joint distribution of the observables. We apply this model to a longitudinal dataset assembled as part of the Cambridge Study of Delinquent Development to test a fundamental theory of criminal development. This theory holds that crime is committed by two distinct groups within the population: adolescent-limited offenders and life-course-persistent offenders. As these labels suggest, the two groups are distinguished by the longevity of their offending careers. The theory also predicts that life-course-persistent offenders are disproportionately comprised of individuals born with neurological deficits and reared by caregivers without the skills and resources to effectively socialize a difficult child.