Malaria epidemics and the influence of the tropical South Atlantic on the Indian monsoon
Malaria epidemics and the influence of the tropical South Atlantic on the Indian monsoon
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1834
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Pascual, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cash, B. A.;Rodo, X.;Pascual, M.
在相对较短的天气时间尺度之外，气候系统中存在的可预测性（1，2）为研究气候变率及其对社会的影响提供了重要的动力。特别是，在地球仪上相距甚远的地点，海表温度变化相对缓慢，气候变化之间的关系为统计和动力学工作提供了基础，以便在季节到十年的时间尺度上预测从降雨到疾病发病率的许多现象。在这里，我们描述了一个遥远的影响，通过观测分析，并通过数值实验与耦合的大气-海洋模型，热带南大西洋（TSA）在干旱的印度西北部的季风降雨和疟疾流行的支持。此外，在TSA的SST提供了基础，有利于疟疾流行的异常水文条件的预警4个月后，因此在较长的前置时间比降雨所提供的。我们发现，TSA不仅是重要的季风和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动之间的关系的调制器，如以前的工作（3，4）所建议的，但对于某些地区和时间滞后实际上是降雨量变化的主要驱动力，因此疟疾爆发。
The existence of predictability in the climate system beyond the relatively short timescales of synoptic weather(1,2) has provided significant impetus to investigate climate variability and its consequences for society. In particular, relationships between the relatively slow changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability at widely removed points across the globe provide a basis for statistical and dynamical efforts to predict numerous phenomena, from rainfall to disease incidence, at seasonal to decadal timescales. We describe here a remote influence, identified through observational analysis and supported through numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, of the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) on both monsoon rainfall and malaria epidemics in arid northwest India. Moreover, SST in the TSA is shown to provide the basis for an early warning of anomalous hydrological conditions conducive to malaria epidemics four months later, therefore at longer lead times than those afforded by rainfall. We find that the TSA is not only significant as a modulator of the relationship between the monsoon and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, as has been suggested by previous work(3,4), but for certain regions and temporal lags is in fact a dominant driver of rainfall variability and hence malaria outbreaks.