China's traction battery technology roadmap: Targets, impacts and concerns
China's traction battery technology roadmap: Targets, impacts and concerns
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.011
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发表时间：
2017-09
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Han Hao;Xiangpu Cheng;Zongwei Liu;F. Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Han Hao;Xiangpu Cheng;Zongwei Liu;F. Zhao
2016年10月，中国发布了最新的动力电池技术路线图，这在一定程度上反映了中国乃至全球对动力电池未来技术发展的看法。在本文中，技术路线图中规定的技术目标，包括能量密度，成本，功率密度和耐用性，进行了审查，并与其他国家以前的预测进行了比较。研究发现，中国2020年前的目标总体上与此前的预测一致。2020-2030年的目标非常雄心勃勃。如果电池技术如预测的那样发展，到2020年左右，电动汽车将具有与传统汽车相似的市场竞争力，这意味着电动汽车将进入大众市场。这将对中国的城市环境、石油安全、稀有金属安全、减缓气候变化和充电基础设施部署产生非常广泛的影响。另一方面，也要充分看到，技术路线图更多是以市场需求为导向，而不是以技术能力为导向。技术不确定性问题在技术路线图中没有得到足够的重视，这可能导致对电池技术和电动汽车市场渗透率的未来过于乐观。
In Oct 2016, China released its most up-to-date traction battery technology roadmap, which reflects the Chinese perspective, or even the global perspective to some extent, on the future technology development of traction batteries. In this paper, the technology targets specified in the technology roadmap, including the energy density, cost, power density, and durability, are reviewed and compared with previous projections from other countries. It is found that China's pre-2020 targets are generally in line with previous projections. The 2020–2030 targets are quite ambitious and aggressive. If the battery technologies evolve as projected, electric vehicles will have similar market competitiveness with conventional vehicles by around 2020, implying a mass market penetration of electric vehicles. This will impose very broad impacts on China's urban environment, oil security, rare metal security, climate change mitigation and charging infrastructure deployment. On the other hand, it should be fully noted that the technology roadmap is more market demand-oriented than technology capacity-oriented. The technology uncertainty issues did not receive adequate emphasis in the technology roadmap, which might result in over-optimism in the future of battery technologies and electric vehicle market penetration.