A Random Utility Model of Delay Discounting and Its Application to People With Externalizing Psychopathology
A Random Utility Model of Delay Discounting and Its Application to People With Externalizing Psychopathology
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DOI：
10.1037/pas0000248
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发表时间：
2016-10-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Finn, Peter R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dai, Junyi;Gunn, Rachel L.;Finn, Peter R.
先前的研究已经证明，工作记忆容量在具有外化精神病理学的人的延迟折扣中起着核心作用。这些研究使用双曲贴现模型，其单一参数-延迟贴现的措施-估计使用标准的方法，寻找跨期期权之间的无差异点。然而，这种方法存在几个问题。首先，无差异点方法所依据的延迟贴现的确定性观点可能是不合适的。其次，使用R-2测度的估计过程往往导致模型拟合不佳。第三，当仅使用无差异点估计参数时，在延迟折扣决策任务中收集的大部分信息被浪费了。为了克服这些问题，本文提出了一个延迟折扣的随机效用模型。该模型有两个参数，一个用于延迟折扣，一个用于选择可变性。它是适合选择从最近发表的数据集使用最大似然和贝叶斯参数估计获得的数据。在以前的研究中，延迟折扣参数显着相关的外化问题和工作记忆容量。此外，选择的可变性也被发现与这两个变量显着相关。这一发现表明，决策中的随机性可能是一种机制，通过这种机制，外部化问题和低工作记忆容量与不良决策有关。因此，随机效用模型的优势在于揭示了选择可变性的作用，而这一点被传统的确定性模型所掩盖。
Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach. First, the deterministic perspective on delay discounting underlying the indifference point method might be inappropriate. Second, the estimation procedure using the R-2 measure often leads to poor model fit. Third, when parameters are estimated using indifference points only, much of the information collected in a delay discounting decision task is wasted. To overcome these problems, this article proposes a random utility model of delay discounting. The proposed model has 2 parameters, 1 for delay discounting and 1 for choice variability. It was fit to choice data obtained from a recently published data set using both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian parameter estimation. As in previous studies, the delay discounting parameter was significantly associated with both externalizing problems and working memory capacity. Furthermore, choice variability was also found to be significantly associated with both variables. This finding suggests that randomness in decisions may be a mechanism by which externalizing problems and low working memory capacity are associated with poor decision making. The random utility model thus has the advantage of disclosing the role of choice variability, which had been masked by the traditional deterministic model.