Prediction of land use changes with Bayesian spatial modeling from the perspective of urban climate
Prediction of land use changes with Bayesian spatial modeling from the perspective of urban climate
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DOI：
10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100569
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发表时间：
2018-08
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Takashi Kyakuno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takashi Kyakuno
利用贝叶斯模型增强的空间统计模型，提出了人口减少城市土地利用变化的预测模型。该模型是基于贝叶斯格式的内禀高斯条件自回归（CAR）模型的改进形式，以随机方式考虑了周边地区城市化压力的影响。在模型中，这些效应被认为是随机变化的，在一定程度上取决于它们的位置，但由先验概率分布控制。将该先验分布的精度设置为较小的值时，考虑平方和（SSE），预测结果更为准确，但会导致过拟合。作者试图通过检查模型的分位数-分位数（QQ）图的sse和形状来检测该值的适当设置。本次研究的研究区域是日本近畿地区，包括大阪、神户、京都。利用数值模型对两个时间点之间的土地利用变化进行比较和统计分析，检测出先验分布精度的最优值。正确设置精度值，不仅可以更准确地估计周边地区城市化压力的影响，而且可以正确评价与城市化有关的其他重要因素的影响。对不同初始城市化情景下近未来城市土地利用变化和气温变化进行了预测。结果表明，局部城市化的发生对城市土地利用和气温变化有一定的影响。但研究也表明，城市周边地区的城市化压力导致的气温上升并不是整个城市区域的现象，而是有限区域的现象。
A new model for predicting land use changes in depopulating cities is proposed that uses a spatial statistical model enhanced by the Bayesian model. This model is a modified form of the intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model with a Bayesian scheme, and it considers the effects of urbanization pressures from the surrounding areas in stochastic ways. In the model, these effects are thought to vary randomly to an extent that depends on their locations but are controlled by the prior probabilistic distribution. When the precision of this prior distribution is set as a small value, the results of the prediction are more accurate when considering the sum of squares (SSE), but it causes overfitting. The author has tried to detect the proper settings of this value by inspecting the SSEs and shapes of the quantile–quantile (QQ) plot of the model.The study area of this research was Kinki area of Japan, which includes Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto. Land use changes between two points in time were compared and analyzed statistically using numerical models, and the optimal value of the precision of the prior distribution was detected. The proper setting of the precision value makes it possible not only to more accurately estimate the effects of urbanization pressures from the surrounding areas but also to properly evaluate the effects of other important factors relevant to urbanization.Predictions of urban land use changes as well as air temperature changes in the near future were carried out for different scenarios of initial urbanization. The results showed that the incidence of local urbanization certainly had an effect on urban land use and induced air temperature changes. But they also showed that the effects were spatially limited and the air temperature rise induced by urbanization pressures from the surrounding areas was not a phenomenon of the entire city area but of limited areas.