More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions
More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2941
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Maher, Nicola
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Donat, Markus G.;Lowry, Andrew L.;Maher, Nicola
预计水文循环的加剧将伴随着气候变暖（1，2）。有人认为，降水量空间分布的变化将扩大干旱和湿润地区之间的差异（3，4），但这对陆地变化有争议（5-8）。此外，降水量的变化不仅在区域之间可能不同，而且在降水量的不同方面，如总量和极值之间也可能不同。在这里，我们调查这两个方面的变化，在世界上的干燥和潮湿的地区使用观测和全球气候模式。尽管总降水量变化存在不确定性，但在过去60年中，观测和气候模式显示，干旱和潮湿地区的极端日降水量平均值均呈强劲增长。对世纪剩余时间的气候预测显示，极端日降水量将继续增加。干旱地区总降水量和极端降水量的增加与特定模式的全球温度变化呈线性关系，因此，预测的全球变暖的蔓延部分解释了到世纪后期这些地区降水加剧的蔓延。随着气候变暖，这种加剧对洪水的风险产生了影响，特别是对世界干旱地区。
Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate(1,2). It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will amplify differences between dry and wet regions(3,4), but this has been disputed for changes over land(5-8). Furthermore, precipitation changes may differ not only between regions but also between different aspects of precipitation, such as totals and extremes. Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world's dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models. Despite uncertainties in total precipitation changes, extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases in both observations and climate models over the past six decades. Climate projections for the rest of the century show continued intensification of daily precipitation extremes. Increases in total and extreme precipitation in dry regions are linearly related to the model-specific global temperature change, so that the spread in projected global warming partly explains the spread in precipitation intensification in these regions by the late twenty-first century. This intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world's dry regions.